The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterPatriots pulled off a dramatic 26-23 win over the Denver Broncos on Christmas Eve, a result that likely will keep New England from securing the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft.

The Patriots entered Week 16 with one more win than the Carolina Panthers in the race for the top pick, and sitting in the No. 2 spot. However, the Patriots' win pushed Bill Belichick's team down to the fourth overall spot with two games left to play. The No. 4 spot might not be high enough for the Patriots to secure one of the top two quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class — USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye — who are projected to go 1-2 in USA TODAY Sports' latest mock draft.

The draft order is determined by record, and uses strength of schedule as a tiebreaker (record and strength of schedule are official tiebreakers to determine the draft order). 

The final 14 first-round spots will be determined by playoff results. For now, those teams will be ordered based on playoff seed, if the season ended today.

The 2024 NFL draft is scheduled to be held in Detroit from April 25-27.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

NFL draft first-round order

(as of Dec. 24; * denotes wild-card team and # denotes division leader)

1. Chicago Bears (from Panthers) — Carolina Panthers' record: 2-13 (strength of schedule: .520)
2. Arizona Cardinals — Record: 3-12 (.557)
3. Washington Commanders — Record: 4-11 (.493)
4. New England Patriots — Record: 4-11 (.525)
5. Los Angeles Chargers — Record: 5-10 (.520)
6. Tennessee Titans — Record: 5-10 (.522)
7. New York Giants — Record: 5-9 (.481)
8. Chicago Bears — Record: 6-9 (.466)
9. New York Jets — Record: 6-9 (.520)
10. Las Vegas Raiders — Record: 6-8 (.481)
11. Atlanta Falcons — Record: 7-8 (.418)
12. New Orleans Saints — Record: 7-8 (.429)
13. Green Bay Packers — Record: 7-8 (.482)
14. Minnesota Vikings — Record: 7-8 (.498)
15. Denver Broncos — Record: 7-8 (.505)
16. Arizona Cardinals (from Texans) — Houston Texans' record: 8-7 (.473)
17. Pittsburgh Steelers — Record: 8-7 (.518)
18. Cincinnati Bengals — Record: 8-7 (.554)
19. *Indianapolis Colts — Record: 8-7 (.478)
20. *Los Angeles Rams — Record: 8-7 (.523)
21. *Seattle Seahawks — Record: 8-7 (.532)
22. *Buffalo Bills — Record: 9-6 (.484)
23. *Dallas Cowboys — Record: 10-5 (.459)
24. *Houston Texans (from Browns) — Cleveland Browns' record: 10-5 (.532)
25. #Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Record: 8-7 (.507)
26. #Jacksonville Jaguars — Record: 8-7 (.563)
27. #Kansas City Chiefs — Record: 9-5 (.500)
28. #Philadelphia Eagles — Record: 10-4 (.524)
29. #Miami Dolphins — Record: 11-4 (.416)
30. #Detroit Lions — Record: 11-4 (.464)
31. #San Francisco 49ers — Record: 11-3 (.500)
32. #Baltimore Ravens — Record: 11-3 (.514)

Teams without a first-round pick: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns